Citizens, Democracy and brexit
Key points A - H about proposals to "allow" the electorate a vote (referendum) on the final negotiated terms – "the deal"
Recent news, collated April/May 2018
Notes (below) are intended to be read as part of the text of this overview
A. Support for a new "brexit" ballot growing among public and politicians of different parties. (1, 2, 3)
B. MPs will be able to force Theresa May to accept a fresh referendum on Brexit in a showdown vote as early as the autumn, a minister has conceded. In a surprise admission, Steve Baker said the crucial vote on the exit deal would not – as expected – be a “take-it-or-leave-it” choice, because “parliament can always seek to amend motions”. The Brexit minister agreed a possible amendment would be for parliament to only approve the withdrawal agreement struck with the EU “subject to a second referendum”. See "Brexit minister reveals how MPs can force Theresa May to accept fresh referendum. The Independent 21 April 2018" (4a, 4b).
C. Referendum trigger: There is no legal basis nor justification to rely on opinion poll results as a basis for the decision to hold a ballot on "the deal". The arguments for such a referendum are strong and therefore it should be held. By tradition and recent practice it is Parliament's responsibility and within its power to formulate and enact a national referendum such as this (5, 6).
D. Scots could tip the brexit balance – here's one way .... by supporting a new brexit referendum.
"The SNP has argued that the UK Government’s EU Withdrawal Bill amounts to a “power grab” by Westminster, but Dolan wrote: “Without Brexit there is no ‘power grab’. We should focus on the main event – Brexit and not on the consequences. We should be campaigning for a second Brexit referendum. After all 62 per cent of the Scottish electorate voted to remain in the EU.” "(7a)
"Tactical and strategic advantages also present themselves for Sturgeon. Given that 62% of voters in Scotland backed Remain, fronting a campaign to demand a Brexit vote would be popular and chime with the majority. By contrast, Sturgeon is currently on the wrong side of public opinion on indyref 2." (7b)
E, F, G, H: Legal and democratic aspects of "brexit"
E. Act of Parliament (year 2011) could enforce a referendum on "the deal" for leaving EU. The 2011 ‘referendum lock’, introduced by David Cameron, prevents any significant change to relations with the EU without the public’s say (8a). "A new referendum on the relations between the UK and the EU is almost certainly required under the European Union Act 2011. This Act created a ‘referendum lock’, which requires a referendum before an amendment of the EU Treaties can be ratified." (8b, 8c).
F. Article 50 application to leave EU CAN be cancelled: brexit is NOT a one way ride without brakes or emergency exit! This has been confirmed by senior officials of the European Union, for example Donald Tusk.
Lord Kerr*, a former UK ambassador to the European Union, stated in late 2017 that Brexiters in May’s cabinet were suggesting Brexit was irreversible and thereby misleading the public. Also he said that the UK could opt to reverse Brexit up to the moment we leave, even if a date for the country’s departure from European Union were added to the withdrawal bill, as Theresa May plans.
*John Kerr, Baron Kerr of Kinlochard is a former diplomat who drafted article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, the article which was used to inform the EU of the UK's intention to leave (9).
G. MPs' proposals for a new referendum on the brexit terms.
The members of Parliament Gareth Thomas and Geraint Davies have in the House of Commons each put forward proposals that before leaving the EU a referendum shall be held on the terms negotiated for leaving. One or more similar proposals have been made in the House of Lords. Numerous MPs' amendments to the Withdrawal from EU bill have contained proposals that a referendum of this kind shall be held.
H. Petitions.
Citizens may put forward and vote in on-line petitions to Parliament and Government. Petitions which attract more than one hundred thousand endorsements ("signatures") are entitled to receive an official written reply. The authorities are NOT obliged to grant a request for a referendum, even if some millions of citizens have endorsed such a proposal. Some examples follow:
Petition: Hold a referendum on the final Brexit deal. Her Majesty's government, in rejecting the call for a people's ballot, wrote, "Both Houses of Parliament will have the opportunity to vote on the final agreement reached with the EU before it is concluded. This will be a meaningful vote which will give MPs the choice to either accept the final agreement or leave the EU with no agreement." https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200004
A related petition is entitled "Parliament's vote on the Brexit deal must include an option to remain in the EU" and reads, "A lesser of two evils choice between a bad deal and no deal is not acceptable. Our country deserves better than Hobson's choice, and our MPs should be allowed to vote with their conscience to deliver what they believe is best for the country." This petition passed the threshold of 100,000 voter endorsements and therefore received a reply from the government. A debate in Parliament about this proposal has been announced (see date at Petition web site). https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/205169
NOTES, REFERENCES, LINKS
1. 'People's Vote' Brexit campaign group calls for referendum on final EU deal
Compared with other places, getting a referendum about ANY matter of public concern is very difficult. As reported, both the Conservative and Labour parties have ruled out a second referendum. In some countries quite similar to ours a major improvement over our UK democracy is that a very large number of voters can refer a serious proposal to the whole electorate and obtain a referendum-ballot, WITHOUT having to beg the government to allow this. Examples: see http://www.iniref.org/record24.html
2. Pro-Europe Labour backbenchers are fighting to keep the pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to reconsider his opposition to membership of the European Economic Area, as new polling for the People’s Vote campaign (see 3 below) confirms majority support for a vote on the Brexit deal. 11 May 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/labour-backbenchers-urge-jeremy-corbyn-to-back-remaining-in-eea
3. The row over Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to Brexit has exploded after five MPs from the party’s northern heartlands broke ranks and openly demanded a new referendum on the UK’s withdrawal deal. The MPs from the Northeast – which heavily backed Leave in the 2016 referendum – said a new vote is essential because the true nature of Brexit is only just emerging.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-latest-jeremy-corbyn-eu-referendum-uk-mps-a8343746.html
4a. Brexit minister reveals how MPs can force Theresa May to accept fresh referendum https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-eu-vote-theresa-may-mps-minister-steve-baker-a8313111.html
4b. Editorial, The Independent 21 April 2018
"Credit, therefore, is due to Steve Baker, minister of state at the Department for Exiting the European Union. As we report today, when he found himself before a House of Lords select committee this week he conceded, without any thumbscrews or bright lights, the possibility of a fresh referendum on the terms of our departure from the EU. (...) Indeed, Mr Baker was helpful enough to suggest that a vote on the deal would need to be held as soon as possible after the conclusion of talks with Brussels in the autumn. That would allow MPs to pass legislation for a referendum before the leaving date of 29 March 2019." http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/second-referendum-brexit-minister-steve-baker-a8315826.html
5. Many millions of UK citizens want to decide in a referendum about the "brexit" terms (Spring 2018, much evidence from opinion surveys) but we have been deprived of our democratic right to launch this sort of public-issue ballot. http://www.iniref.org/record25.html
6. Are voters changing their minds about brexit? John Curtice (Prof), public opinion ace, struggles in his analysis concerning the question, "is there any consistent evidence that support for having another referendum has increased?" https://whatukthinks.org/eu/are-voters-changing-their-minds-about-brexit/
7a. Paul Hutcheon: backing a Brexit referendum could get the SNP off the constitutional hook 6 5 2018
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16207866.Sturgeon_told__Put_new_EU_vote_before_independence/
The SNP has argued that the UK Government’s EU Withdrawal Bill amounts to a “power grab” by Westminster, but Dolan wrote: “Without Brexit there is no ‘power grab’. We should focus on the main event – Brexit and not on the consequences. We should be campaigning for a second Brexit referendum. After all 62 per cent of the Scottish electorate voted to remain in the EU.”
7b. Sturgeon told: Put new EU vote before independence 7 5 2018
http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/16207858.Paul_Hutcheon__backing_a_Brexit_referendum_could_get_the_SNP_off_the_constitutional_hook/
"Tactical and strategic advantages also present themselves for Sturgeon. Given that 62% of voters in Scotland backed Remain, fronting a campaign to demand a Brexit vote would be popular and chime with the majority. By contrast, Sturgeon is currently on the wrong side of public opinion on indyref 2."
8a. Brexit: Second referendum required before Britain can leave the EU, legal challenge claims.
"The 2011 ‘referendum lock’, introduced by David Cameron, prevents any significant change to relations with the EU without the public’s say. ... Dominic Grieve, the former Tory Attorney General, said the case ‘raises an important constitutional issue’. ... The law requires a further referendum before Brexit can go ahead, say campaigners who are mounting a legal challenge to slam the brakes on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union." Saturday 10 March 2018 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-second-referendum-lock-legal-challenge-david-cameron-dominic-grieve-a8250266.html
8b. Pavlos Eleftheriadis 6 July 2016 Second referendum probably legally required. https://infacts.org/second-referendum-probably-legally-required/
8c. Mark Elliott. Does the law require a second referendum before Brexit takes effect? https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2017/05/02/does-existing-legislation-require-a-second-referendum-before-brexit-takes-effect/
9. Brexit is reversible even after date is set, says author of article 50 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/10/brexit-date-is-not-irreversible-says-man-who-wrote-article-50-lord-kerr
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